Access for whom? World Bank’s Mission 300 risks prioritising profits over people at Africa Energy Summit

The Africa Energy Summit on 27 and 28 January 2025 in Tanzania is a cornerstone of Mission 300, an initiative led by the World Bank Group (WBG) and the African Development Bank (AfDB). The initiative aims to bring electricity to 300 million people in sub-Saharan Africa by 2030. In Dar es Salaam, Mission 300 target countries will present their first round of national energy strategies for universal energy access, termed compacts. By the end of the summit, the countries will collectively develop the Dar es Salaam Energy Declaration, a unified roadmap for Africa’s progress toward Mission 300’s goals.

People all across Africa urgently need progress on energy access. About 600 million, half of Africa’s population, lack access to electricity, and about 800 million rely on traditional biomass for cooking and heating. This extreme level of energy poverty is not only a major barrier for economic development but also poses severe health risks (indoor air pollution), environmental risks (deforestation), and exacerbates gender injustice. This is even more outrageous considering that Africa has some of the best wind and solar energy resources on the planet. Nearly 60% of the world’s prime solar sites are located on the continent. Africa is abundantly rich in energy sources, yet its people are left to suffer extreme energy poverty.

The WBG and AfDB’s Mission 300 claims to tackle this challenge. Its declared ambition is to provide electricity to 300 million people in sub-Saharan Africa by 2030 through progress in three key areas:

1. expanding the electricity grid,

2. bringing power to off-grid communities through off-grid solar solutions, and

3. modernising Africa’s energy sector by encouraging infrastructure investment, policy reforms, and private sector involvement.

At face value, this seems commendable, but serious doubts remain whether the World Bank’s traditional tool kit fills the bill. We believe Mission 300 risks fuelling the debt, climate, and democracy crises, and might have little impact for sustainable development if the following five core issues are not resolved.

1. Mission 300 risks deepening Africa’s debt crisis

Many African countries grapple with debt distress that limits their ability to invest in renewable energy. The financial resources to address multiple pressing issues at once, such as achieving universal energy access, providing education and health services, building green industries, and adapting to climate impacts, far exceed countries’ borrowing capacity. This has resulted in a 240% increase in external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt in Africa between 2008 and 2022. Countries including Senegal, Rwanda, Mozambique, and Ethiopia have seen a staggering tenfold rise in external debt. In Kenya, public protests erupted in response to a tax reform by President Ruto that sought to address the country’s debt crisis. Most of African debt is held by private sector creditors, Multilateral Development Banks, and China.

The Mission 300 statement mentions concessional financing (e.g. through International Development Association) as one of the programme’s instruments, next to technical assistance, equity, and guarantees for private investments (by the International Finance Cooperation and Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency). Non-debt instruments (e.g. grants, swaps, or debt-relief) are not mentioned.

However, even concessional loans below market rates exacerbate debt problems. It is thus crucial that Mission 300’s financial mechanisms are tailored to countries’ fiscal and debt situations. Non-debt instruments should be a major part of this response to avoid worsening existing debt burdens.

At the same time, effective climate and development financing presupposes that Africa’s unsustainable debt levels are directly addressed. A key step will be comprehensive audits to identify and cancel illegitimate debt burdens, particularly those tied to corruption or harmful projects. The ‘odious debt’ doctrine provides a legal concept for challenging exploitative financial obligations. Structural reforms must then target the root causes of debt dependency, such as unsustainable borrowing practices and unfair trade relationships, ensuring long-term fiscal stability and resilience.

2. Mission 300 prioritises profits over people

shutterstock / zlikovec

Mission 300’s efforts rely on private investments. This reflects the WBG’s strategic shift in energy financing from Investment Policy Financing (IPF), which funds specific projects, to Development Policy Financing (DPF), which ties budget support to policy reforms. A recent Bretton Woods Project study found that of 71 energy projects approved in the first year of the WBG’s Paris Agreement alignment, 38 were DPFs, totalling USD 13 billion of the USD 19 billion committed to the Bank’s energy sector lending.

The World Bank’s DPF approach prioritises privatisation and liberalisation in the energy sector against a backdrop of regulations adjusted to reduce risks for private investors and to promote a private-sector-led energy transition. This strategy raises significant concerns about its ability to deliver affordable and reliable renewable energy, particularly to last-mile communities. Without adequate regulation and tax frameworks, privatisation tends to prioritise corporate profits over public welfare. Its outcomes heavily depend on what is privatised and under what conditions. A well regulated privatisation of electricity generation may be a good strategy, but essential infrastructure such as grids for distribution and transmission must remain under public control to avoid private monopolies and to ensure equitable access and protect public interests. Further, without strong regulatory oversight and fair tax systems, the Bank’s liberalisation model, which reduces necessary regulation, risks failing to deliver energy access to the people most in need. This enables exploitative corporations to extract wealth from countries, and transfers financial risks to citizens and governments, which undermines public welfare in the process.

World Bank President Ajay Banga emphasised at the 2024 Spring Meetings that access to electricity is a human right. Following this principle, energy access must be a priority irrespective of profitability. Mission 300 must ensure that energy access expands driven by a political and social imperative to serve the most disadvantaged communities, regardless of economic returns. This requires assigning priority to the inclusion of the poorest, including through subsidised end-user prices and connection costs. The poorest will only benefit if (local) companies that provide tailored solutions for marginalised communities are prioritised and supported in championing a private-sector-led energy transition. Public subsidies and incentives should only be granted to companies that demonstrably address the energy access needs of the most vulnerable and foster local green value chain development. Without such targeted measures, the private sector is unlikely to reach these populations, leaving critical gaps in energy access unaddressed.

3. Mission 300 fails to exclude fossil fuels

Wind turbines in the Western Cape, South Africa

shutterstock / Dawid Fourie

Currently, Mission 300 does not state what source will power the electricity for the 300 million Africans in sub-Saharan Africa. We welcome that the mission’s declared focus is on eradicating energy poverty, but it is concerning that many of Mission 300’s target countries are major oil and gas exporters that endorse fossil gas as a transitional energy source, particularly Nigeria, Senegal, Malawi, and Liberia. Leadership in these countries misconstrues fossil gas projects as vital for national energy security.

However, renewable energy, especially decentralised projects, offer cheaper, more stable and faster solutions than traditional energy industries. It is also expected to create far more jobs for Africa’s younger generations. In contrast, fossil fuel investments feed the climate crisis, destroy biodiversity and livelihoods of people, perpetuate corruption, and are more expensive than renewable energy alternatives. To make things worse, such investments are at risk of becoming stranded assets when new regulations, for example carbon pricing, or falling prices for green technologies render them even less competitive.

Therefore, Mission 300 must rule out fossil fuel investments and follow renewable energy–only strategies. This is in line with the WBG’s commitment to Paris alignment, which includes the exclusion of fossil fuels from financing. This should also entail all downstream oil and gas investments – with and without Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) – towards a complete exclusion of fossil fuels across the value chain in Mission 300.

4. Mission 300 risks focusing on superficial targets

Creating access to electricity for 300 million Africans within five years is ambitious. Energy access will need to go beyond basic lighting and encompass a diverse range of productive electricity uses. Electricity should be available year-round and round-the-clock, without frequent outages, to reliably power appliances and businesses. At the same time, energy needs to be affordable for consumers and industries.

The WBG defines energy access as ‘the ability to obtain energy that is adequate, reliable, good quality, affordable, legal, convenient, healthy, and safe for all required applications across households, productive enterprises, and community institutions.’ Mission 300 should adopt this comprehensive definition to ensure that energy access is not just about basic needs but also sustainable development.

To achieve this, Mission 300 should encourage target countries to focus on a broader definition of energy access. Additionally, the initiative must set clear, transparent goals based on countries’ unique circumstances, including development status and available resources. It is also crucial to connect Mission 300 with existing partnerships and initiatives such as the Senegalese JETP, the Desert2Power Initiative in the Sahel region, and the EU–Africa Green Energy Initiative. This approach can help attract additional resources, enable scalability, and ensure that electricity access extends beyond the 300 million people initially targeted, ultimately reaching every African. Mission 300 can truly drive transformative change by adopting a holistic and well connected approach to energy access.

5. Mission 300 fails to enable meaningful engagement 

The initiative’s success depends on collaboration between governments, the private sector, donors, and local communities. Mission 300 emphasises placing local communities at the centre through regular consultations and surveys that aim to ensure energy projects and investments be tailored to their needs and deliver maximum on-the-ground impact. Additionally, the WBG’s Evolution Roadmap outlines a commitment to strengthen citizen participation, social accountability, and collaboration with civil society organisations.

However, at present, there is hardly any structured and consistent community and civil society participation across the 14 target countries. Some countries, such as Madagascar and Tanzania, have hosted consultations as part of the first round of developing their national energy compacts. But it is unclear whether similar efforts have been undertaken in other nations throughout this first round of National Energy Compacts. This is concerning, as stakeholder engagement is essential for the success of these transformative compacts, especially when it comes to engaging affected communities and vulnerable groups.

To address this, Mission 300 should support African governments in establishing participation mechanisms, such as national energy dialogues and public consultations. The Mission should also ensure clear and consistent processes for civil society and affected communities to monitor and evaluate the implementation of national energy compacts.

The Africa Energy Summit could have been an opportunity to amplify the voices of communities and civil society. However, its focus remained on governments, donors, and the private sector, ultimately sidelining the very people Mission 300 aims to serve. The planned Civil Society Energy Dialogue on 22 January certainly is a welcome step, but just five days before the summit, this short, two-hour dialogue will not allow for civil society to contribute meaningfully to the Declaration. The programming also separates civil society voices from the other stakeholders. Important messages may fall by the wayside, or not be expressed at all. This is particularly troubling given that the Dar es Salaam Energy Declaration, much like the National Energy Compacts from which they are set to evolve, will not undergo public consultation.

In conclusion, Mission 300 and its partners need course correction. They should mandate public consultations for the Dar es Salaam Energy Declaration, expand the Civil Society Energy Dialogue for deeper engagement, establish a continuous civil society consultation platform across the 14 target countries, and dedicate a summit side event led by civil society organisations. This is the high road to uphold transparency, inclusivity, and accountability while achieving energy access for all.