Trump election win has massive consequences for world order and the climate – EU and Germany need to step up
Berlin/Bonn (Nov. 6, 2024). The environment and development organization Germanwatch is deeply concerned about the outcome of the US presidential elections. “Donald Trump's election victory has the potential to fundamentally reshape the world order that we have seen since the Second World War. Germanwatch is committed to global justice and the protection of human rights and the fundamentally threatened ecological foundations of life. Donald Trump has announced that the United States will oppose progress in all these areas,” says Christoph Bals, Policy Director of Germanwatch. “With Trump, the fossil fuel lobby is threatening to take over the reins of government in the United States. But the global economic and technological trends continue to point to a dynamic development of renewable energy, storage technologies and electromobility.”
Bals continues: “We are deeply concerned to see the extent to which money from the fossil fuel lobby and the tech scene has supported this election campaign. We are now expecting the EU and Germany to demonstrate the ability to act internally and externally on their own values - together with partners, especially in the Global South. However, this will be challenging in view of the increasing political polarization in the EU and the limited ability of the German government to act.”
Particular challenge for the global community at the COP in Baku
Germanwatch is also deeply concerned about the impact of Trump's victory on climate policy. “For global climate action, another Trump term in office with a Republican majority in Congress is seriously bad news,” says Bals. “Trump doubts that the climate crisis is real and will work to increase oil and gas production, even though this is destroying the livelihoods of our planet. But the climate crisis will not tolerate any delay in action, and physics doesn't care who is in the White House. This makes it all the more important for the international community to prove at the upcoming COP29 climate summit in Baku and the G20 summit in Rio that it will be able to take climate action without the government of the United States if necessary. The German government should now take the initiative to form a broad coalition of countries that will reaffirm its support for the Paris Climate Agreement and its goals in the coming days.”
Trump might not only take the United States out of the Paris Agreement, but might also try to leave the overarching UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Bals: “There will unlikely be a majority in Congress for an adequate American contribution to international climate finance, and the funding of multilateral institutions from the United Nations to the World Bank is also at risk.”
Politically, it will be difficult or impossible for Trump to end many of the funding programs for green technologies in President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, but he will weaken them. Trump’s main focus will be on improving conditions for the oil and gas industry. “Trump may slow down and complicate change in the United States - but he cannot stop it. However, it will undermine the achievement of the global Paris climate goals for all. The USA is the world's second largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Its historical responsibility for causing the increasing impacts of climate change will increase further as a result of Trump's irresponsible policies. In addition, his fossil fuel policy will damage the American economy in the long term if he increasingly decouples it from innovations and markets of the future,” says Bals.
EU and Germany are called upon to counter Trump's fossil course
Germanwatch expects Germany and the EU to react responsibly. Bals: “The German government and the EU must now create certainty about the path we are on, because the European economy also needs this clarity. This also means pursuing the path towards electrification and renewable energy even more consistently. The majority of liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to Germany come from the United States. Any reduction in this dependency on imports also reduces support for Trump's fossil fuel policy, reduces vulnerability to decisions by the new U.S. administration and helps to strengthen green business models. To this end, the German government should, among other things, provide greater support for the electrification of processes in industry and commerce and promote the development of a green hydrogen economy in Europe more resolutely. An ambitious EU 2040 climate target of at least 90 percent emissions reduction would be the right signal. The EU heads of government must commit to this at their next summit.”
On this basis, the EU could also become a driving force for a coalition of countries to present the new ambitious climate plans (NDCs) required by the Paris Agreement by February 2025. Partner countries such as China, India, South Africa and Brazil must be brought into this. In future, the EU will have to define its relationship with these countries independently - and not just in terms of climate policy. At the imminent climate summit in Baku, agreement must first be reached on a new climate finance goal - even without the United States. The multilateral climate regime has already proven its resilience during Trump's first term in office - it can work this time too, but it requires courageous and swift action. “There is a broad movement of businesses, states, municipalities and civil society initiatives in the United States that are serious about climate action and committed to climate goals. Climate diplomacy must fully engage these key actors. This also means a strong role for civil society. Germanwatch will rise to this challenge,” says Bals.
