Analysis of BP Statistical Review of World Energy with respect to CO2 emissions. 5th Edition 2004

This briefing paper analyses the BP Statistical Review of World Energy with respect to CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption. The focus is put on the classification of Annex B ("industrialized countries") and non-Annex B countries ("developing countries") as defined in the Kyoto Protocol.

The method applied here is to convert the fossil fuel consumption with specific emission factors for coal, oil and gas into CO2 emissions. The resulting figures were then analysed in various ways. Though this method might be criticized as being too simple, the trends and relative changes are reproduced with sufficient accuracy.

Main trends of 2003 emissions compared to 2002 are:

• In 2003 world CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption increased by about 3.8 percent. Since 1990 world CO2 emissions have increased by about 18 percent.
• The emissions of Annex B countries increased by 2%. We believe that this can be attributed primarily to a stronger economy in 2003 despite high oil prices. In 2003 emissions from OECD countries increased slightly by 1.6%.
• The emissions of non-Annex B countries increased by about 7 percent in 2003 with a total increase of 51 percent compared to 1990, giving these countries a rising share in total emissions (presently about 43 percent ).
• The largest relative increases over 1990 emissions can be witnessed in Thailand (+ 146%), Bangladesh (+136%), South Korea (+ 128%) and Malaysia (+121%)
• China increased its coal consumption for the third time after the strong reductions between 1998 and 2000. China's coal consumption in 2003 was the highest ever, so far. It consumed approximately 40 percent more than the second largest coal consumer, the USA.
• Emission trends of most countries seem to be influenced by high oil prices. Many countries increased their absolute coal consumption as well as the share of coal in primary energy use, most prominent Japan, Denmark, China and South Africa.

1 Introduction

2 LBST methodology

3 Emissions statistics by country
3.1 Emissions of Annex B Countries
3.2 Emissions of Non-Annex B Countries using the LBST method
3.3 Emission changes 1990 to 2003
3.4 Development of CO2 emissions

4 Primary energy consumption
4.1 The share of fossil fuels
4.2 Coal consumption

5 References

6 Abbreviations

>> Complete working paper in PDF format [130KB]