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Analysis of BP Statistical Review of World Energy with respect to CO2-Emissions

Please note: The second edition presented below has been updated

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Analysis of BP Statistical Review of World Energy with respect to CO2 Emissions

2nd Edition, 5th July 2001

Joint Working Paper prepared by

Werner Zittel (Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH, Ottobrunn) and Manfred Treber (Germanwatch)
Executive Summary

This working paper analyses the BP Statistical Review of World Energy with respect to CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption. The focus is put on the classification of Annex-B and non-Annex-B countries as defined in the Kyoto protocol.

The method is to convert the fossil fuel consumption with specific emission factors for coal, oil and gas into CO2 emissions and to analyse the results. Though this method might be critizised as being too simple, the trends and relative changes are reproduced sufficiently accurate.

Main trends are:

  • The world CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption in 2000 were higher than in 1999 (about two percent). Since 1990 world CO2 emissions increased by about 7.5 percent.
  • The emissions of Annex-B countries are one percent below the 1990 emissions. This decrease is mainly attributable to the strong emission reductions in the Economies in Transition. The only other countries with reduced emissions are Sweden (- 6.6 %), UK (- 5.3 %), Switzerland (- 1.8 %) and Germany (-13.3 %), where the latter also (but not only) took adventage from the inclusion of the former GDR.
  • The emissions of the non Annex-B countries increased by about 24 percent, giving these countries a larger share on total emissions of about 40 percent.
  • The largest relative increases come from Thailand (+ 110 %), South Korea (+ 106 %) and Taiwan (+ 92 %)
  • The share of coal in primary energy supply decreased in most countries. The strongest decrease took place in China.
  • China increased its coal consumption until 1996 heavily, but reduced it since then by almost 30 percent, resulting in 10 percent less coal consumption than 1990.
  • The world's largest coal consumer in 1990 was China; in 2000 the world's largest coal consumer were the USA, which also had the largest absolute increase in coal consumption
  • Emission trends of many countries seem to be influenced by the Kyoto protocol. Those of China seem to be most influenced. On the other hand, China and India with the high specific CO2 emission per primary energy unit still have a huge potential for further improvements in energy efficiency.

1 Introduction

2 LBST Methodology

3 The Emissions of the Negotiating Parties of the Kyoto Protocol

3.1 Emissions of Annex B Countries

3.2 Emissions of Non Annex-B Countries Using the LBST method

3.3 Emission Changes 1990 to 1999

3.4 Development of CO2 Emissions

4 Primary Energy Consumption

4.1 The Share of Fossil Fuels

4.2 Coal Consumption

5 References

6 Abbreviations

7 Appendix: Fossil Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions

[complete working paper in PDF format]

Figure: CO2 emission trends

last updated 12 April 2005