Analysis of BP Statistical Review of World Energy with respect to CO2 emissions

This working paper analyses the BP Statistical Review of World Energy with respect to CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption. The focus is put on the classification of Annex B ("industrialized countries") and non-Annex B countries ("developing countries") as defined in the Kyoto Protocol.

The method applied here is to convert the fossil fuel consumption with specific emission factors for coal, oil and gas into CO2 emissions. The resulting figures were then analysed in various ways. Though this method might be criticized as being too simple, the trends and relative changes are reproduced with sufficient accuracy.

Main trends of 2002 emissions compared to 2001 are:

• World CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption increased by about 3 percent. Since 1990 world CO2 emissions have increased by about 13 percent.
• The emissions of Annex B countries remained almost constant. We believe that this can be attributed primarily to a weak world economy in 2002 in conjunction with high oil prices. In 2002 emissions from OECD countries increased slightly by 0.5 %.
• The emissions of non-Annex B countries increased by about 7 percent in 2002 with a total increase of 38 percent compared to 1990, giving these countries a rising share in total emissions (presently about 42 percent ).
• The largest relative increases can be witnessed in Thailand (+ 128 %), Malaysia (+127%) and South Korea (+ 124 %).
• China increased its coal consumption for the second time after the strong reductions between 1998 and 2000. However, China's coal consumption in 2002 was still 3 percent below the consumption in 1998.
• China, the world's largest coal consumer in 2002, consumed approximately 20 percent more than the second largest coal consumer, the USA.
• Emission trends of most countries seem to be influenced by high oil prices. Almost all non-Annex B countries increased their absolute coal consumption as well as the share of coal in primary energy use. 

1 Introduction

2 LBST methodology

3 Emissions of the Negotiating Parties of the Kyoto Protocol
3.1 Emissions of Annex B Countries
3.2 Emissions of Non-Annex B Countries using the LBST method
3.3 Emission changes 1990 to 2002
3.4 Development of CO2 emissions

4 Primary energy consumption
4.1 The share of fossil fuels
4.2 Coal consumption

5 References

6 Abbreviations

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